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Wed, 04.06.2003
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pte20030604031 Health/Medicine
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WHO may have overestimated SARS death rate
Chinese expert thinks 15 per cent is too high

Beijing (pte031/04.06.2003/14:01) - Just one day after the WHO expressed doubts about the sudden decrease in new SARS cases in China, a leading Chinese SARS expert has questioned the WHO's figures for the death rate of SARS.

Zhong Nashan, director of the Guangzhou Institute for Respiratory Illnesses, has said he thinks the WHO's estimate of a 15 per cent death rate is too high. "15 per cent could be an overestimate," said Zhong.

Xinhua news agency quotes Zhong as stating that the death rate in China lies around six per cent, which would make the world rate of 15 per cent inaccurate. Zhong made his statements on the first day of the "ASEAN, China, Japan and ROK (10+3) High-level Symposium on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome", which began yesterday.

WHO representatives also attending the meeting said their organisation believed that the initial estimate of a three to four per cent death rate had been too "optimistic", and that 14 to 15 per cent was more accurate. Zhong replied by pointing out that the WHO based its estimate on data from Canada and Singapore, where he believes the death rate was higher than in other regions. He said that China has undertaken effective measures to treat and prevent SARS, and that even at his institute, where severe cases of SARS have been treated, the death rate has only been four per cent. (newsfox-special SARS)

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